growth diagnostic
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Evidence-first review of the CAC and new-customer miss, prepared for the Shane / CTO / growth session. Hypotheses are ranked, not concluded — the next steps are proposals for discussion.
90 days, all signals on one axis. Toggle layers; dashed verticals mark the deliberate changes. Noisy daily series default to 7-day moving averages.
Healthy window vs decline window (Intelligems sitewide). The break is isolated to one step: engaged visitors stopped progressing to add-to-cart. Everything downstream is intact.
26 A/B tests overlapped the window. The chart below maps every span; the second chart overlays daily concurrent tests against sitewide CVR.
The highest-traffic landing page — and the page most of the May/June tests ran on. Weekly visitors and CVR below; behavior signals from Clarity at right of the stat row.
* partial week. Includes rise-2-short and rise-2-founder URL variants.
Weekly spend by channel (top 6 + other) with Meta’s share of total overlaid. The mix shifted deliberately in May — the open question is whether the Google increment is finding new customers or harvesting brand demand.