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Media Efficiency — auction inflation, not fatigue

CPM up, CTR flat — the auction got more expensive

Meta daily CPM (left, $) against daily CTR (right, %), both 7-day averages. If creative were fatiguing, the green CTR line would be falling as CPM rose. It isn’t — the cost of a thousand impressions climbed while click-through held, which means the price of attention went up, not the quality of the ads.

Meta Ads daily export, 7-day trailing averages; the final partial day is excluded. The amber shading at the tail marks the last two weeks, where CTR did start to slide — see watch item #1 below.

Meta cost-per-purchase vs blended CAC

Red = Meta cost-per-purchase, daily 7-day average (Meta-reported purchases). Stepped gray = weekly blended CAC (Daily Spend Tracker spend ÷ Shopify new customers — the house number), held flat across each week. Weeks with fewer than 4 complete days are excluded.

Every channel got more expensive

Attribution caveatNorthbeam lifetime attribution (connector default) — not the house 7-day-click standard; re-pull pending. Directionally robust: every channel moves the same way, but the absolute dollar figures will shift under 7-day click.

Weekly spend by channel

Three things to keep eyes on